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| Steve Bell. The Guardian 10th January 2019 |
Suspicion has been growing amongst MPs (and me) that Theresa May isn’t perhaps quite as deluded as she would like the rest of us to believe and that, despite her repeated assertions to the contrary, she knows full well that she’s got as much chance of her Brexit deal winning a majority in the Commons as there is of the DUP regaling her with a resounding chorus of Ave Maria (or is that a sectarianist comment?). Mother Theresa is many things. She’s obdurate, stubborn, pig-headed and a party tribalist who puts the interests of the Tories above all other considerations, but she’s not actually stupid. She can count. She can see the numbers. And she knows that she doesn’t have the votes. She’s just not prepared to admit it in public.
The Prime Minister knows that she’s not going to get her deal through the Commons when it’s put to a vote next week, and so what she’s really doing is playing a game of chicken with Parliament. She's trying to use up as much time as possible so that MPs will panic and vote for her deal at the very last minute before Brexit Day in order to avoid the no-deal Brexit that’s only wanted by the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg. She’s risking the disaster of a no-deal in order that there will be no time for any other of the possible options to be voted on, no chance to delay or derail Brexit and no chance for one of the much softer Brexit options which would preserve freedom of movement. Brinkmanship or what?
Since the main selling point of Brexit was that the British Parliament could take back control, MPs are less than impressed that the Prime Minister is trying to impose a false choice on the Commons and is doing all she can to reduce their opportunities to make an informed and meaningful decision. Admittedly we’re talking here of an institution that has Chris Grayling, Boris Johnson and David Davies in it, so it could be argued that reducing the opportunity of the Commons to make a meaningful choice is an act of prudence similar to removing a box of matches from a toddler. Unfortunately in this instance the person taking the matches off the toddler is an arsonist with a crateful of petrol filled bottles stopped with greasy rags.
Faced with a Government which is threatening arson if it doesn’t get its way, MPs have been taking steps to reduce the ability of the Government to lob Molotov's at the British economy and body politic. A couple of days ago, Tory MPs voted with the opposition parties to support an amendment tabled by Labour’s Yvette Cooper to put the brakes on some of the government’s tax powers in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Yes, I know that the amendment was largely symbolic, but it was yet another defeat for the Government and clearly demonstrated that there is no majority in Parliament for a no-deal Brexit.
Then yesterday, the Government faced an even more serious defeat when Tory MP Dominic Grieve tabled an amendment to the Government’s business motion for the Brexit debate. The amendment compels Mrs May to come back to the Commons within three days if, as is likely, her deal fails in the vote due next week. A previous amendment introduced by Dominic Grieve and passed by MPs means that any alternative plan which the Prime Minister comes back with will itself be subject to amendments by MPs, meaning that the Commons will be able to debate and vote upon alternatives. It had been thought that Grieve’s amendment would not be accepted by the Speaker, as traditionally government business motions are not allowed to be altered. However, the Speaker ruled otherwise, much to the anger of the Government and its supporters. Over the catcalls and jeers of over-excited Tories, he insisted that his job was not to make life easier for the Executive, but to protect and defend the rights of Parliament. Sounds good to me.
How dare the Parliament, that the Brexists say they’re determined to restore sovereignty to, act as though it was sovereign. We've just seen what happens when your self-serving rhetoric jumps up and bites you on the bum. They scream that it's undemocratic for Parliament to take back control from a government. But it's a government that won’t listen but which still says it’s working to restore control to parliament. And this is the same government which claims that having another referendum would be undemocratic, because apparently more democracy means less democracy. The only meaningful vote that Mrs May wants is her own.
When the amendment came to the vote, the Government lost. Mrs May will now be obliged to return to the Commons with an alternative plan within three days of her Brexit deal failing to pass, instead of the 21 days that she previously had. With the Brexit clock ticking, and Brexit Day looming on March 29th, every day is precious. Allowing Mrs May three weeks following the defeat of her deal would have meant she could return to the Commons with substantially the same deal as before, but with time having run out on any alternatives. That’s now become far harder for her to do. And that's a good thing. Maybe that's why we are starting to hear talk of more cooperation across party lines? But let's not hold our breath.
The next few weeks are likely to be every bit as febrile and rancorous as those just gone. A chaotic no-deal Brexit remains a very real possibility. But so does an early General Election, another EU referendum or some version of a Brexit deal. How’s that for the safety, security, and stability that Mrs May and her legions are oft to quote. I'm not sure where it will all end but, for now, it means not being able to have a break without being a passive and helpless witness to a constitutional crisis that threatens to blight livelihoods, opportunities and lives. A pox on all of those who brought us to this point. And a plague of boils for intruding on my break. But a bouquet for giving me lots to rant about. Pity Mrs P living through it.
And here's a couple of holiday snaps to show that life goes on.
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| Robin |
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| Grey Wagtail. I know it looks yellow but it's not a Yellow Wagtail. Wrong colour and wrong time of year for that. |
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| Rock Pipit |
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| Young Buzzard |
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