It’s obvious now who is going to win this Westminster general election and it's really just a matter of "by how many seats?". Despite the excited touting of some wildly outlying polls by GB News, Farage’s vanity company calling itself a party, Reform Ltd, probably won’t actually win enough seats to form the official opposition to the Labour juggernaut. But it is likely to make that all important psychological breakthrough of getting Farage, and possibly a handful of his acolytes, elected to Westminster for the first time.
I find the rise of the far right in this election real and concerning. A poll by pollsters BMG published this week put the Tories and Reform both on 19%, with Labour on 42%. This would give Starmer a majority of over 300 seats, the Tories would be reduced to just 53 seats and Reform would win 5. However we are getting close to the crossover point where the first-past-the-post system, which penalises the smaller parties, would start to allow Farage to pile up seats.
Farage has his eyes set on a larger prize, the attention seeking narcissist is not just trying to get into parliament in order to lead a tiny band of extreme right wing eccentrics on the opposition benches. With polls predicting the worst Conservative defeat in the modern democratic era, Farage intends to swoop down on the corpse of the Tory party and devour it. You’ve heard of vulture capitalism, this is vulture politics. Farage wants to transform the cadaver of the Tory party into an authoritarian hard right xenophobic anti-immigrant party led by himself.
Farage is thinking about the election after this one, betting on disillusionment with the Labour administration setting in. He could then be in a position to get the first-past-the-post system work to benefit him and, in that election, we could see a nakedly far right authoritarian English nationalist party led by Farage contend as the party of the next government. It’s quite possible that Farage’s position will improve even further by polling day in two weeks as he gurns his way through the media and the Tories continue to shoot themselves in the foot.
The Tory campaign has been a disaster, and continues to implode. It was already going poorly when Sunak decided it was a good idea to bugger off early from the D-Day commemorations in order to do an interview for ITV. One which will be remembered solely for the multimillionaire ex-public schoolboy’s ham fisted attempt to make out that he understands the deprivations of the poor and low waged in this cost of living crisis, his government bears much of the responsibility for, because his parents wouldn’t get Sky TV when he was a child.
The Tory campaign has been notable for the reluctance of cabinet ministers and big names to come out and defend the government, not least because most of those who have not stood down are eyeing up their chances of leading the party after Sunak’s inevitable resignation. It’s maybe just as well, however, as those who can be persuaded to crawl out of the woodwork do more harm than good. Who i their right minds in Conservative campaign HQ thought it was a good idea to send Michael Gove out onto breakfast TV on Thursday to tell viewers that he thought it was still possible that the Tories could win on 4th July. Cocaine does make you wildly over confident, but even Gove knows, deep down in that shrivelled block of ice he calls his heart, that no one is buying his snake oil any more.
Chris Skidmore, the Conservatives’ former net zero tsar and Minister for Universities under Theresa May, has defected to Labour, writing in the Guardian that he’ll be voting for Starmer’s party on 4th July because Sunak has been “siding with climate deniers” to politicise the energy transition.
It got worse for Sunak during the BBCQT leaders' questions. He got tetchy. He was dying on his arse as the audience shouted “shame, shame on you” when he talked about leaving the ECHR. An awful, out of touch man. Both him and his corrupt party will be decimated in two weeks time and he knows it. He looked lost and beaten.
Meanwhile at CCHQ, Tony Lee, the Tory campaign director, was forced to take a leave of absence after allegations were made that either he and/or his wife Laura Saunders, the Conservative candidate for Bristol North West, allegedly placed a bet relating to the timing of the General Election.
Saunders becomes the second (but certainly not the last - there will be others) Tory candidate to be accused of using inside knowledge of the date of the Election to make a quick buck. Tory MP Craig Williams, a senior aide to the Prime Minister, who is standing for re-election as the MP for Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr in Mid Wales, also reportedly bet £100 on the date of the Election just before it was called. Williams has admitted to placing the bet, calling it an error of judgement, saying: “I put a flutter on the General Election some weeks ago. This has resulted in some routine inquiries and I confirm I will fully co-operate with these. I don’t want it to be a distraction from the campaign. I should have thought through how it looks.”
It’s Partygate all over again at CCHQ but with betting instead of booze. It’s likely that the reason Sunak hasn’t taken decisive action over Laura Saunders, Craig Williams and Tony Lee (both Saunders and Williams are still Tory candidates), is because a whole raft of staff at CCHQ also placed bets for a giggle, and now they are all cacking themselves. The Tories have finally found a hill that they can die on, but no one expected it to be William Hill.
Gove popped up again on the evening news to say the behaviour of Saunders, Lee, and the others was “unacceptable” adding, “people shouldn’t be using privileged inside information in this way.” Is that what he told Michael Mone?
The Tories are in freefall and Vulture Farage is waiting at the bottom of the electoral cliff to feast on their battered remains. Look beyond July 4th and be concerned at what he might do. It could end in tears for all of us.
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